Bitcoin Risk On/Off indicator
One transparent market-mood score built from five open inputs. Every input, formula and source is shown below.
76Risk-on
Computed 22 Oct 2026, 21:21 London · 0 = max risk-off, 100 = max risk-on
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Inputs
Fear & Greed Index68
Value: 68
score = index value (0–100)Source: alternative.me · as of 22 Oct 2026, 01:00 London
Price vs 200-day average79
Value: 1.117× ($81,250 / $72,735)
score = 50 + (price/MA200 − 1) × 250, clipped 0–100 (±20% → 0/100)Source: blockchain.info charts/market-price (daily USD, sampled=false) + Coinbase · as of 22 Oct 2026, 21:21 London
30-day vs 1-year volatility97
Value: 23.4% / 44.2%
score = 50 − (vol30/vol365 − 1) × 100, clipped (calmer than usual → risk-on)Source: blockchain.info charts/market-price (daily USD, sampled=false) · as of 22 Oct 2026, 19:15 London
MVRV (market vs realised value)34
Value: 1.54
score = (MVRV − 0.8) / 2.2 × 100, clipped (0.8 → 0, 3.0 → 100)Source: bitcoin-data.com (free tier, ~7 days delayed) · as of 15 Oct 2026, 01:00 London
US spot ETF flows, 5 days100
Value: +$997M
score = 50 + flow5d($M) / 20, clipped (±$1bn → 0/100)Source: Farside Investors · as of 22 Oct 2026, 19:30 London
Score = simple average of the available inputs. Free-tier on-chain data lags about a week. Not a forecast and not investment advice.
FAQ
- What is the Risk On/Off indicator?
- One 0–100 score that averages five open measures of Bitcoin market mood. Above 60 the market is in risk-on mode, below 40 in risk-off mode.
- Is it a buy or sell signal?
- No. It describes the current state from past data. It is not a forecast and not investment advice.
- How is the score calculated?
- Each input is mapped to 0–100 with the formula shown in the table, then a simple average is taken. Weights are equal; formulas and sources are public.